World Cup 2026 Knockout Stage: The Teams Defying the Odds and What the Markets Are Saying

pexels carsten busch 904667880 26775875

Table of Contents

The 2026 World Cup arrived with an expanded format and this has led to the tournament feeling very different to previous ones. At the start, many expected the traditional big teams to dominate, especially when the knockout stages arrived. However, what we have seen is a series of surprises that were never expected. Favourites have already been sent home, while others that were expected to cruise through the rounds have faced real struggles. 

The quarter finals are now set, and it’s fair to say that the tournament feels more open than ever before. France is still there as the bookies favourite having progressed with hardly any issues. Then we have Brazil, Germany, Portugal, and the Netherlands that have all been knocked out. These eliminations have blown things wide apart, with Morocco, Switzerland, and Norway becoming major stories. These teams have shown that tactical discipline can overcome a team that’s full of household names. 

Morocco Have Become Genuine Contenders

The run that we’ve witnessed by Morocco is no longer seen as a surprise. The team made it to the semi finals in Qatar during 2022, and they entered this tournament with expectations that they could challenge again. However, at the start, no one truly believed that they would once again be one of the biggest focal points of the whole tournament. 

The first knockout round saw them face the Netherlands in the Round of 32. This was a close run match, with Morocco finally clinching victory on penalties. However, the most convincing win has to be the 3-0 win of Canada, which saw the co-hosts being dumped from the competition. Morocco played with its usual organisation, quick transactions, and clinical finishing, allowing it to expose Canada’s weaknesses far too many times. It’s clear to see that Morocco has grown in confidence with every match, and there is now a real belief that the team could go all the way. 

The reward now is a quarter final against France. This is bound to be tough, with France being the strongest team remaining in the tournament. France benefits from greater depth across the pitch. It has to be said that they have looked extremely comfortable in possession throughout the matches so far. That being said, the Moroccan team has already shown that it can frustrate high-level teams. They still have one of the best defensive shapes in the competition, and they have shown that they can remain patient, taking chances wisely. 

Norway’s Fairytale Continues

It’s fair to say that no team has exceeded expectations more than Norway. Yes, they entered the tournament with a talented squad, but no one really mentioned them when talking about teams who could genuinely lift the trophy. What has happened is that the team has built momentum with disciplined and intelligent football. They have shown that they will not be intimated by opponents that are seen as being more established. 

It was the win over Brazil in the Round of 16 that changed it all overnight. Many had expected Brazil to be challenging for another world title, but Norway limited their attacking opportunities and then took full advantage of their own. There was no luck here: this was a result of concentration, defensive organisation, and a tactical approach that was able to disrupt the usual rhythm of the Brazilian team. 

England now await in the quarter finals, presenting another enormous challenge. Norway are unlikely to dominate possession, but they have shown throughout the competition that they are comfortable defending patiently before launching dangerous counter attacks. That style has already caused significant problems for stronger teams and gives them every reason to believe another upset is possible.

Switzerland Continue to Defy Expectations

Switzerland has long had a reputation as being one of the most solid international teams to face, and this has been reinforced with what we have seen so far. It has to be said that they don’t really overwhelm with attacking play, but they remain mentally resilient when matches become tense. 

The win over Columbia saw 120 minutes with no goals, with penalties finally settling the round. Switzerland’ players held their nerves from the spot, with goalkeeper Gregor Kobel showing why he has been one of the standout performers in the tournament so far. 

Now, Switzerland will face one of their toughest obstacles in the form of Argentina. Switzerland have already shown that they can beat technically gifted sides. If the match is close as it approaches the closing stages, the pressure will switch to the defending champions, and this could really benefit the underdogs in the closing minutes.  

France Have Justified Their Status

France hasn’t really received a great deal of attention so far. This is mainly because the team has just quietly carried on doing what it is best at. They progressed through the group stages with ease, and then beat Sweden and Paraguay to seal their place in the final eight. 

Unlike many rivals, France have rarely seemed to be under any pressure. The depth of the squad means that they can rotate with no drop in quality, while experienced players continue to deliver when it matters. The defence has looked solid, and attacks have led to consistent chances. 

For those following World Cup outrights, France have strengthened their position at the top of the betting markets over the past week. Brazil’s elimination removed one of the pre tournament favourites, while other contenders have shown occasional defensive vulnerabilities. France, by comparison, have continued to progress without unnecessary drama, which explains why bookmakers now place them at the head of most outright markets heading into the quarter finals.

The upcoming meeting with Morocco will not be easy. The African side has already knocked out one European heavyweight, and this means that the team arrives full of confidence. France shouldn’t underestimate a side that has shown that it can produce football that is disciplined and intelligent, with no nerves showing on the world’s biggest stage. 

England Face Another Awkward Test

England have made it to the quarter finals, but it has by no means been easy. There was a narrow win over DR Congo which was followed by a dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico. The latter showed real attacking prowess, but some serious issues in defence. Thomas Tuchel has shown that his team is capable of progressing, but there is still a vulnerability that can easily be exploited. 

Norway is set to be a real challenge. While they won’t dominate possession, the danger will come from the fact that they are able to strike quickly on the break. England are still one of the favourites with bookies, but no one should expect Norway to simply be pushed aside. 

Spain and Belgium Meet in the Tie of the Round

Many supporters view Spain against Belgium as the standout quarter final because both teams have looked capable of going all the way. Spain have continued to dominate possession, controlling matches through patient passing before creating openings in dangerous areas. Victories over Austria and Portugal underlined their credentials and reinforced the belief that they are genuine title contenders.

Belgium have improved with every game. After edging past Senegal in the Round of 32, they produced one of the performances of the tournament by defeating the United States 4-1. Their attacking players have looked sharp throughout the competition, although Spain’s ability to dictate the tempo will provide a very different examination. Fine margins are likely to decide the outcome, with individual quality or a single defensive mistake potentially proving decisive.

Argentina Know How to Win Knockout Football

Argentina have not enjoyed the smoothest route to the last eight, but defending champions rarely panic when knockout matches become difficult. They recovered from a testing encounter with Egypt before securing their place in the quarter finals.

Switzerland will attempt to frustrate them with the same disciplined approach that has brought success throughout the competition. Argentina, however, possess players capable of deciding matches with moments of individual brilliance, even when opportunities are limited. That quality explains why they remain among the leading contenders despite occasionally falling below their highest standards.

An Unpredictable Finish Awaits

This World Cup has already delivered plenty of surprises. It has shown us all that nothing can be taken for granted at the start of a tournament. Yes, established nations are still progressing, but emerging teams are threatening to deliver a real shock. 

With eight matches left to place, each one of these comes with huge importance. While France may be worthy favourites, the likes of Spain, England, and Argentina still have the chance to go on and win. Morocco, Norway, and Switzerland have also shown just what they are capable of, with upsets being more than just a little possible. The knockout stages are proving that reputations don’t really matter: it is all down to the 90 minutes and what happens on the pitch.

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Related Articles