The AFL finals may grab the headlines, but the outcomes are often shaped long before the first bounce of September. What seems like a sudden upset in the finals is usually the result of patterns, momentum, and tactics established during the minor rounds. From injury management to match-up data and strategic experimentation, the groundwork laid across 24 regular-season games often sets the scene for dramatic, season-defining shocks.
Form and Finishing Position Are Not Always Equal
While the ladder provides a snapshot of team performance, it doesn’t always tell the full story. A team sitting fifth or sixth with a strong last-month run can often present a bigger threat than a fatigued side clinging to second place. Recent history shows that clubs with a late-season surge, such as the Bulldogs in 2016 or Richmond in 2019, have used that momentum to dismantle more fancied opponents in the finals.
That’s why close observers often keep an eye on AFL futures markets for season-long outcomes, not just after Round 24, but months earlier when a team’s form trend begins to surface. Minor round performances help reveal which teams are peaking at the right time versus those who may be flatlining despite a top-four finish.
Match-Ups During the Season Tell Future Stories
When a lower-ranked team knocks off a top-four side in the finals, it’s rarely out of the blue. Look back, and you’ll often find a regular-season match-up where that same team caused problems—or would have, had it not been for a late fade or a few costly turnovers.
These minor round meetings act as a preview. They expose mismatches, test tactical adjustments, and shape how teams prepare for potential rematches in September. Coaches routinely study those earlier clashes to plan for finals, whether by exploiting midfield dominance, negating key forwards, or tweaking defensive structures.
Travel Loads and Venue Familiarity Play a Quiet Role
The AFL fixture is not a level playing field. Some teams travel more than others, play more games on short turnarounds, or rarely see the MCG until finals. In fact, a study on elite footballers has shown that longer duration travel or crossing more time zones resulted in poorer perceptual fatigue and sleep quality, with longer post-match travel also impairing recovery, highlighting how scheduling and distance shape physical readiness across a season. These factors influence both fatigue and preparation.
For instance, interstate sides who’ve played at finals venues earlier in the season often perform better under September pressure than those who haven’t. Likewise, clubs managing difficult travel months during the minor rounds tend to develop stronger resilience. That resilience matters when the pressure intensifies, and the margin for error disappears.
Strategic Squad Management Sets the Tone
How coaches rotate their squads throughout the season also plays a hidden but vital role. Giving fringe players game time in mid-year rounds builds depth, while managing stars through niggles ensures they’re ready when it counts.
Some shocks occur not because a team suddenly becomes good, but because they’ve been quietly building squad cohesion and managing loads more effectively than their opponents. The minor rounds, then, become a stage not just for results but for managing the longer game.
Finals Upsets Are Months in the Making
Finals shocks don’t materialise out of nowhere. They reflect a combination of form trends, tactical evolution, travel and recovery management, and head-to-head familiarity—all sharpened across the AFL’s 24 minor rounds. Those paying attention to the entire season—not just the ladder or headline stats—often spot the signs long before the public catches on.
When the underdog wins in September, it’s not always a miracle. More often, it’s the delayed reward for nine months of pattern recognition, disciplined execution, and quietly impressive performances that built towards a single breakout moment.
