Want to understand betting odds once and for all?
Every day, millions of punters look at betting odds and make no sense of them. The numbers, the symbols, the format…it’s all completely baffling. And here’s the thing…
It really doesn’t have to be this way.
Once you understand the simple basics of betting odds, you can flip your entire betting approach from guesswork to being an educated punter.
But there’s a problem:
Most betting guides out there make the whole odds concept way more complicated than it needs to be. They confuse people with lots of technical terms and complicated formulas.
But here’s the thing…
Odds are the building blocks of successful betting. If you don’t understand how betting odds work, you might as well be chucking your money away.
What you’ll learn:
- Betting Odds Explained
- Odds Formats 101
- Understanding Implied Probability
- Value Betting Strategies
- Common Odds Mistakes
- Tips for Betting Odds Success
Betting Odds Explained
So let’s start with the basics. Odds are just a way of displaying two key pieces of information: the probability and the potential profit.
That’s it. No complicated maths.
Here’s what odds tell you:
- The likelihood of a particular outcome happening
- How much money you’ll win if that outcome does happen
You may have noticed, most bookmakers display three different types of odds (fractional, decimal and American). The format doesn’t change the information you’re being given – only how that information is presented.
But here’s what most people don’t realize…
Bookies don’t set the odds purely based on probability. They also add in their profit margin (known as the vigorish or “vig” for short). So the odds you see aren’t the same as the true probability.
For example, if you have two Free Bet Offers from Ladbrokes betting sites and a rival site, you could see differences in value on the same markets.
Think of it as the bookie’s cushion. On a true 50/50 coin toss, a bookmaker might offer you slightly longer odds to make it 52/48 in their favour. That extra 2% is the vig.
So if you understand the vig you can use the Ladbrokes free bets to find better value in their Ladbrokes betting offers than many other bookies. 74% of in-play bettors now use their mobile phones to place wagers, making it easier than ever to compare odds on the go.
Pretty smart, right?
Odds Formats 101
Three main types of odds display methods. They all show the same information, but in slightly different ways:
Fractional (UK Style)
These are the classic “football” odds that you see on Ladbrokes banners: 3/1, 5/2, 1/4, etc.
3/1 means you win £3 for every £1 you wager. The higher the numerator (first number), the longer the odds and the lower the perceived likelihood (but higher potential winnings).
Decimal (European Style)
Decimal odds are the easiest to read: 2.00, 3.50, 1.25, and so on.
This shows your total return for every £1 wagered. Bet £10 at 3.00 odds, and your total return is £30 (including your original £10 stake).
Simple, right?
American (Moneyline)
American odds use a positive (+) or negative (-) sign: +200, -150, +500, and so on.
Positive (+) – This shows how much profit you make on a £100 wager. Negative (-) – This shows how much you need to bet in order to win £100.
Decimal odds are generally the easiest to work with, especially for beginners.
Understanding Implied Probability
Here’s a secret the professional bettors know:
When they find a value bet, the first thing they do is convert the odds into implied probability.
Here’s the formula for decimal odds:
Implied Probability = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds) × 100
Example: Decimal odds of 2.00 = (1 ÷ 2.00) × 100 = 50% implied probability
In other words, the bookmaker believes there is a 50% chance of this outcome happening.
But here’s where it gets really interesting…
If you (the punter) think the true probability is higher than the implied probability, then you have a value bet in your hands. That’s how professional punters turn a consistent profit.
It’s worth noting, a recent study found that in 35 years of elections, 77% of betting odds have accurately predicted election winners, meaning odds do often reflect the true probability.
Value Betting Strategies
Bet on oddsmakers and transactions betting has now reached 56.78% of the betting volume, here’s a little-known fact that most casual punters don’t do…
They never compare the odds.
Bookmakers offer different odds for the same event. The difference may seem small, but over time those extra few pence per pound will add up to serious profits.
Here’s an example of a £100 bet:
- Bookmaker A offers 2.00 odds (profit of £100)
- Bookmaker B offers 2.10 odds (profit of £110)
Bet with the better odds, and that’s an extra £10 for the same bet.
Value not winnings
Here’s the main difference between winning and losing punters:
Winning punters are only betting where they see value. Betting where you have a better estimate of true probability than the bookmaker.
Odds of 1.50 might be more likely to win than 2.00, but if the true probability suggests it should be 1.30, that’s no value.
Market movement
Smart punters are constantly tracking the odds movement. Odds move all the time based on new information, betting patterns, expert analysis and more. Spot the trends and jump on the opportunities.
Common Odds Mistakes
Let’s talk about some of the most common mistakes made by people who struggle to win with betting odds:
Not understanding overround
Every bookmaker adds a profit margin (overround) to their odds. The implication of this is if you add up all the implied probabilities of all the possible outcomes, they will add up to more than 100%.
For example:
If you look at a football match between Team A and Team B:
- Team A has an implied probability of 40%
- The draw has an implied probability of 35%
- Team B has an implied probability of 30%
- The total is 105%
That extra 5% is the bookmaker’s overround or vig.
Chasing big odds
Lucky bets happen on those big 20/1 or 50/1 odds, we know that. But those odds are long for a reason. Be careful betting on odds that are way out of line with your own estimates of probability.
Neglecting stake management
It doesn’t matter how good you are at assessing odds if you’re not managing your stakes correctly. Only ever bet what you can afford to lose, even if you’re feeling “sure” about a wager.
Essential Tips for Betting Odds Success
Begin with singles before moving on to accumulators. Singles are much easier to analyse.
Use betting exchanges where possible, as these tend to offer better odds than traditional bookmakers.
Bet on what you know. Your knowledge of a sport or event is your edge in finding value.
Patience, patience, patience. Good value bets aren’t available every day. Don’t force bets. Wait for the right opportunities.
Wrapping Up
Understanding betting odds is the first step in becoming a more informed, successful punter.
Key points to remember:
- Odds tell you the probability and potential profit of an outcome
- There are three different formats for displaying odds (fractional, decimal, American)
- Odds are not the true probability – the bookies add a profit margin called overround or vig
- Find value by comparing your own estimate of true probability to the implied probability
- Shop around for the best odds from different bookmakers
- Avoid common mistakes that cost punters money
The global online gambling market size is expected to reach £117.5 billion in 2025.
Don’t be another punter who loses money through ignorance. Educate yourself on betting odds, and bet smarter, not harder.
